Cambodian political landscape is now being divided into two main playing groups: the CPP and the Non-CPPs. While the CPP is still the “CPP,” the Non-CPPs are alienated into smaller parties including those which side with the CPP and those who claim to be democratic and nationalistic. For many years there have been speculations that the CPP would be crumbled, the rumors, however, have been falsely used to drum up supports for the Non-CPPs.
Both--the CPP and the Non-CPPs-- have been working hard to discredit their opponent(s.) The opponents to the CPP see nothing that the CPP does right and merely looking to count on what the CPP does badly so that they can gain popularity. The CPP, on the other hand, is trying to restrain its oppositions from pointing out what it does wrong and has used Cambodian legal system quite effectively to curb it opponents. The Non-CPPs seems to learn quite slowly not to walk into the CPP's legal trap.
While both sides are trying so hard, the CPP has the advantages over its opponents on all fronts. It has better financial backups, stronger infrastructures, and superior managerial skill. In addition, nearly all media networks favor the CPP and have had better relationship with the ruling party because of their financial ties and rewards. Many of us like to think that the CPP controls the media, but in reality, the media have been friendlier to the CPP because of their social ties, political ties, and financial interests. It should be noted that many newspapers in Cambodia belong to certain members of political party and independent newspapers do not exist.
Recently, the CPP has also infiltrated into overseas Cambodian communities and has done well in building its political and social networks in the US, Australia and in Europe. Pictures from Cambodia via Karaoke machines, television shows and tourists certainly make many overseas people think that Cambodia is now acceptable; hence they believe that Cambodia has been drastically improving. The CPP has managed to soften many hearts with their repeated propaganda and the help of overseas Khmers who have produced all kinds of entertainment products.
While the CPP has achieved its goals in many areas, the Non-CPPs are running out of valid reasons to effectively oppose the CPP. The passage of the anti-corruption laws will make the CPP smell better and it spells bad news for the oppositions. Those who look to get rich by becoming politicians or public officials to oppose the ruling party will have to think twice about their investments in Cambodian politics. Those who belong to the CPP have already achieved their financial riches and will continue to use their financial strength to protect their party's and personal interests.
What is left for the oppositions to attempt is their concentration on the emotional issues which strongly relate to Cambodia’s borders with Vietnam, human rights abuses, illegal immigration and political oppression. The key to their success will rest on what the majority of the Cambodians think. Will these particular issues matter to them on a daily bases? What matters to the oppositions might be irrelevant to ordinary Cambodians who have lived hand to mouth for many years.
Confrontation against the CPP will continue. Sam Rainsy and his party’s leaders have been working hard to expose Hun Sen and the CPP weaknesses, especially in the areas of border issue with Vietnam. Sam Rainsy even terms the arrest of the Thai engineer as being plotted by Hun Sen (and the Pheu Thai Party) in order to “divert public attention on Phnom Penh’s inaction against Vietnam's encroachment on thousands of square kilometers of Cambodia's territory.” Meanwhile Mme Mu SocHua has tried to win over Hun Sen on another issue- -the Women Rights issue. The leaders of the international community and NGOs seems to be very sympathetic and impressed with Mme Mu and her mission, unfortunately, Hun Sen also knows quite well that they are not Cambodian voters.
In reality, it’s the voters and the general gelection in the future that count. Most Cambodians do not care about some complicated issues that do not immediately affect their own pocket. They live day by day along with the ones whom they see the most--members of the CPP. Cambodian cultures have bonded those people together for many years and loyalty is the best policy for members of local Cambodian community.
With the current system in place the “déjà vu” of the electoral process will happen again. The CPP will employ their tricks and treats to win the heart and soul of Cambodian voters once more. With its financial strength, well established organizational structures at all levels and the “50% plus 1” system, the CPP will rule Cambodia for another 5 years from the next general election date. By then some kinds of the opposition party or parties continue to exist for just the alibis of the Cambodian People’s Party. The lack of organizational skill, manpower, and financial supports will drive members of the oppositions to defect to the ruling party. Cambodia and Vietnam will complete most of their tasks and there is nothing that ordinary Cambodians can do about that.
A few of those new and old professional politicians will manage to convince some susceptible overseas Khmer people to help support their life style in Cambodia for being heroic to fight against the CPP and its political machine. However, in real life there is not enough new blood Cambodians or resources to help support any viable political or non political movement to successfully challenge the CPP.
There will be no other alternative to help Cambodia better than the political processes which require all Cambodians to unite. This is the new challenge that the younger Khmer generations have to figure out. The older generations have had their opportunity to save and serve Cambodia, but for the most part, they have only saved and served their own personal interests. A drastic change is needed. Those who have failed to achieve true success for Cambodians and Cambodia need to step aside to make room for a fresh set of leaders to truly save and serve Cambodia. They cannot go on doing the same things and expect the difference.
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