Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Thai-Cambodia Row: Is it a political game?

Some analysts like Mong Palatino of the Diplomat have “guessed” that the new tension between Thailand and Cambodia regarding the so-called 4.6 Square Kilometers around Khmer Temple Preah Vihear is just "the real aim of both Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to strengthen their respective domestic leadership credentials" or it simply means a continuing game that Hun Sen and Abhisit play to help win their respective election in the nears future.

Although such an argument is understandable, I do not agree that “the game” will benefit Hun Sen as much as it will to Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vijjajiva.

While Abhisit’s job as Thailand Prime Minister is uncertain, Premier Hun Sen’s position, unless he resigns, dies or is incapacitated, is still uncontested.

Hun Sen and his CPP team do not need to use Preah Vihear as a game to win the in the next general election.

First, with its financial power and solid political and social infrastructures, the CPP will have the means to secure the ballots from most of Cambodian voters.

Secondly, since early 2006, with Sam Rainsy’s help, the CPP further consolidated its hold on power by successfully passing through Parliament an amendment to the Cambodia’s constitution that will allow for a “50% plus One” majority in the National Assembly to form a government.

In addition, the National Election Committee, heavily influenced by the current administration, also organizes the electoral processes.

I do not see that Hun Sen is fearful of his flimsy oppositions to the point that he has to start a war with Thailand in order to win in the next general election.


With the war game or military exercise alongside Cambodia’s borders together with tanks, artillery units and massing troupes and the purchase of new warplanes, it appears that the Thai warmongers are preparing for the real fight.

Let us hope and pray that the United Nations and ASEAN can help defuse this tension to avoid further bloodshed.

It would be too shameful for Abhisit Vijjajiva and Hun Sen to dupe the international community like the United Nations and ASEAN by creating conflicts of this magnitude just to keep their respective power.

Picture from Defense Industry Daily http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/thailand-buying-jas-39-gripens-awacs-04022/

Thailand’s 2011 budget begins funding 2nd phase buy… which is now official, and has an interesting extra.

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